Jakarta (Indonesia Window) – The Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) in September 2021 increased by 4.40 U.S. dollars per barrel to 72.20 U.S. dollars per barrel from 67.80 U.S. dollars per barrel in August 2021.

The price hike follows the disruption in the world's oil supply, according to a written statement from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources received in here on Thursday (Oct. 7).

The increase in the oil price in international markets was caused by a termination of crude oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Ida and Tropical Storm Nicholas. This condition could deplete the crude oil supply by up to 30 million barrels.

The growth price was also caused by the disruption of crude oil supply from Libya due to demonstrations that shut down the crude oil export terminal in this country.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in September 2021 lowered its forecast for crude oil supply this year from non-OPEC countries by 0.15 million barrels per day to 63.85 million barrels per day compared to the previous month.

OPEC also reported that the projected world demand for crude oil in 2021 was 96.68 million barrels per day, or up 0.11 million barrels per day compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report in the same month showed a decline in the world oil supply in August 2021 by 540,000 barrels per day, to 96.1 million barrels per day.

The Indonesian Oil Price Team analysis showed a number of factors that influenced the ICP, namely the weak exchange rate of the dollar against several currencies, especially the Euro.

In addition, global natural gas prices increased dramatically towards winter due to a lack of natural gas supplies, making crude oil became a substitute energy. This is expected to increase demands for crude oil by 550,000 barrels per day.

In the Asia and Pacific regions, besides those reasons, the increase in crude oil prices was also influenced by the continued growth of a gasoline demand in China, with the amount in September 2021 was expected to reach that during the pre-COVID-19 period.

In addition, the lifting of activity restrictions in India to prevent the spread of COVID-19 has increased gasoline demands in this South Asian country.

The development of the average price of major crude oil on the international market in September 2021 compared to August 2021 is as follows.

Dated Brent rose by 3.77 dollars per barrel from 70.81 dollars per barrel, to 74.58 dollars per barrel.

WTI (Nymex) rose by 3.83 dollars per barrel from 67.71 dollars per barrel, to 71.54 dollars per barrel.

The OPEC basket rose by 3.37 dollars per barrel from 70.33 dollars per barrel, to 73.70 dollars per barrel.

Brent (ICE) rose by 4.37 dollars per barrel from 70.51 dollars per barrel, to 74.88 dollars per barrel.

Reporting by Indonesia Window